May Goal Recap

1) Gonna continue Rush until I get bored with it OR realize I don't have an edge (but I think I got a nice edge) Still playing it, but wouldn't be my main game if not for starting school in July
2) GRIND MY ASS OFF, this is likely the last opportunity I have to put together a big month before school starts 123 hours, 119k hands
3) Figure out where the hell I'm gonna live and who I'm living with when I start school (this has been a bit frustrating so far as most of the places available are shitty apartments) DONE
4) Go to the doctor to have shoulder/back examined Went to a Physical Therapist, doing some stretches/core exercises
5) Definitely continue eating healthy and at least doing p90x cardio workouts and maybe some of the strength training videos which don't expose my shoulder fail, been focusing on doing my physical therapy and that's it. really want to get healthy before doing more intense workouts
6) Planning on going to Cubs game May 15th, but considering backing out of that backed out for various reasons, but mostly because it would have been terrible for my back
7) Book a trip to Vegas for a few days during the WSOP in June have not done yet

May Thoughts

I learned a lot about modern day 6max, sample sizes, variance, and tilt. It was a wonderful experience and has taught me a lot about the game AND myself. To be honest, the only thing holding you back from beating low-mid stakes is yourself.

I won at 2.4BB/100 this month, but what is my winrate if I didn't go on donkey tilt? I would venture to guess it would be 3.5 - 4.0BB/100. Over millions of hands, that is going to add up to a lot of $, a lot of lost happiness, and a lot of unneeded stress.

Let's look at the variance/tilt factor from May.

Part 1, Play good, run hot



Part 2, Play bad, run bad



Part 3, Play good, run a little bad, but fairly normal



These graphs look like a chimpanzee took over in the 2nd graph and started playing poker for me. It's actually unbelievable to think the same person could play those separate samples of poker. Clearly, the mindset in the 2nd graph was that of donkey tilt.


June Goals

1) Put in 30hrs/week
2) Move home with parents temporarily from June 19th-early July. My father is having a hip replacement, so I am going to do the right thing with my poker freedom and go home to take care of him. I did the same thing in April 2009 when he had a knee replacement. My mother gets home from work around 2:30, so I will definitely have time to play poker after she gets home. Part of me has been questioning going back to school b/c of things exactly like this situation. If I was in school right now, who the fuck would take care of my father during the day? I guess my parents would have had to hire a nanny for a while.
3) Emotional control
4) Don't make dumb river calls against regs/regfish at small stakes without necessary information. If making big folds seems to become a common occurrence against the same villain, maybe maybe maybe he is bluffing me. At first though, assume they are not.
5) Move to the house in new town for school----not sure of exact date yet, but definitely before July 12th
6) Wax car, get windows tinted, coolant/transmission fluid changed, look at getting new tires
7) Estimated taxes (FML, I hate how the 2nd quarter of the year is only 2 months).
8) Sell a bunch of shit like Wii, GPS, camera
9) Continue the physical therapy, start some regular cardio via bike
10) Getting my braces June 1st, hopefully they can kick some ass on my teeth
11) Go fishing a bunch when back home

Future

I am trying to cut down on poker forums/websites/blogs. I think by July I want to completely remove 2+2/Leggo/CRs from my daily activities. So, my farewell from being an active member of this community is coming very soon. In fact, this blog post may be my last.

It was exactly 2 years ago today that I graduated from college. It was obviously a bittersweet moment as college was an amazing experience, but was ready to start playing poker. Poker has been an amazing experience and has afforded me a lot of opportunity and freedom that others do not have. At the same time, poker can be a bitch and make me an emotional train wreck. Without a doubt, the highs greatly outweigh the lows. My main goal when I first started playing strategic poker (Fall 2006, yes...omg on Party Poker for about 1 month before UIGEA) was just to win. I remember specifically saying in late 2006 or early 2007 that I would be happy if I beat NL100 and made a bit of money. Well, as I was graduating I was beating NL200. So, my new goal was to save up any money made from poker and return to graduate school after 1 year. Well, obviously poker was too awesome and I had to take another year off.

Now, I am at a crossroads. I have been out of school for 2 years and am returning to graduate school July 12th. All the questions are running through my head. Should I just play poker until it is no longer profitable and then return to grad school (this was a legitimate option)? I can make money at poker now, but is money really what makes people happy? No it doesn't IMO. Once you have a respectable income, anything above and beyond that is just unnecessary. Why do I play poker? Money, freedom, or do I genuinely enjoy it? Will the legality of poker in the United States change in the very near future? Will I hate school (very likely, but so do 99% of students)? School is not really the end game, the career that follows is why you are going to school. I know helping others feel better in the future will provide me self-satisfaction and a certain level of happiness. I obviously won't know the answers to these questions until I live out the next few years, but I can speculate and make what I believe to be the best decisions now.

The REAL 2 year anniversary for May 25, 2010 is NOT me graduating from college. It is a devastating natural disaster that took place just miles (physically) and an hour (real time) after my graduation. It was hot/humid the day of graduation. Okay, that is pretty standard during an Iowa summer. Graduation was indoors. I will never in my lifetime, forgot the feeling of stepping outside of the building after graduation. It was some of the most awful heat/humidity especially when in a graduation gown and cap. The sun was bright, but as we were conversing with classmates/family, the sun seemed to go under the clouds, the sky was darkening, and the wind was gaining speed.

My family and I went to a local restaurant to have dinner. While inside, a strong thunderstorm was coming through the area. The power went out and/or blinked several times while the storm was passing. This happens quite a bit so we did not think too much of it and went on enjoying our meal and celebrating my graduation. The storm had passed, so after the meal, we took a family photo outside of the restaurant. At the time we commented how the sky behind us was very dark/eerie, but little did we know a tornado had just destroyed a local town and killed 8 people. The family parted ways and everybody hit the road to return to their respective homes. Shortly into our journey my sister had called us and told us about the devastation they could see from the interstate. It became very evident that a very serious tornado had just came through the area. When we got home we were of course glued to the TV much like people did on September 11th. The devastation was incredible. This storm system was the first of many in a 2-3 week period which eventually led to the worst flooding in Iowa's recorded history.

I will finish the blog with some incredible photos from the tornado of May 25, 2008 and flooding from June 2008.

Normally, I would be tilting away about 10 buyins right now. Instead, I am going to do the smart thing and just walk away. I ran normal for 14k hands, which means it's time for the Rush doomswitch from hell where you get stacked infinite times in about 10 minutes.

In 400 hands this happened, so it's time to take a break.

KK < 33 in a squeezed pot vs a mega donk...flop 542r we got it in, awesome...I lose riv A

KK < JJ AIPF BTN/SB battle, standard cooler spot except the guy is 14/12 nit, so his JJ is never ever good.

AA < JJ BTN/BB battle, standard cooler that I didn't hold

AK < AQ in a 4bet pot vs a terrible reg, A high flop

KK < AA vs some unknown 1 tabler

I will get back in the gaymes (poker is gay!) later tonight when I've cooled off.

I've been looking at craigslist every day for the past 9 months and never really found anything too interesting. Got a connection to a pretty nice house with an opening and am officially set to move in July. Orientation is July 12th, sooooo 53 days or so until that starts. I'm stoked to not be living in a shitty apartment. The whole process of finding a place to live was beginning to stress me out.

Everybody, and I mean EVERYBODY I've talked to said 1st year of school is a complete bitch. Class all day, study all night. That does not bode well for the future of my poker career. I will, of course, not know until I am actually in school, but I could see myself quitting poker (except for during breaks between trimesters and Christmas break). I am going to be very rusty and have to think it will hurt my winrate quite a bit.

Speaking of poker, I took a more serious approach using all of the suggestions commented in my last blog. Sleep pattern improved, grinding earlier in the day, much less tilt, short sessions (I have about 1hr attention span), booking wins, eating healthier, and cutting out distractions during sessions REALLY helped. Of course, having the nuts a lot helps too. Having a losing regular who pumps in 11-12bbs in the pot OOP 20% of the time when I raise the CO/BTN is also awesome.

I can't believe how fundamentally flawed a bunch of the regulars are at NL100. They squeeze to 15 to 18bbs preflop. I've seen people 4bet to 29bbs with AA. Today, some donkreg tagfish 4bet to 39bbs when I had AA. I guess I should have flat called instead of 5b jam b/c he fucking folded lord have mercy on his soul.

Now, it's time for me to admit my flaws. I overvalue top pair with T or J kicker. I always tell myself they're value raping my ass with Q, K, or A kicker and am pretty much spot on every time. Gotta learn to fold the river. Ummm, what else? I haven't been 3 betting light enough in position. Mostly, I wanted to try to prevent myself from spewing/tilting, so I've just been taking it easy on the marginal plays. I suck at playing when I'm not the preflop aggressor. These are all things I can work on, so I'm not worried too much about them.

I simply cannot win at this game. Up/down up/down and we're talking BIG swings both ways and fast. Nobody folds to 3bets even though I 3bet the nuts+a bit of air. Somehow they always beat me though. I have to have faith eventually their retarded calling ranges will catch up to them and that they're running hot. If not, I won't ever make money at this game, simple as that. If this is standard ranges for villains I am fucked. I am going to continue putting in the hours for the rest of May (14 more days). If I can't win during that time, I will probably end up quitting poker for good. It is now or never as school starts July 12th. It amazes me that a majority of the regulars at the game I'm playing are not winning players. A select few make over 1BB/100. That is fucking sickening. I have faith they just suck (with some evidence), but maybe the games are that hard.

GL

Ran good, played good, didn't tilt even though I made a few mistakes postflop. There were a few fun hands today where they flop sets on me in 3b pots, but alas their calls preflop are -EV so that will work out in the long term for me, not them.

Nice little 10 buyin upswing after my last post bitching about running bad+power outages. The power stopped flickering, so that is good.

I still don't understand why my graphs go +6 to 10 buyins over a long period and then I can't win a pot for the next 1.5k hands and drop all the profits. Some of the extreme swings this month have been compounded by tilt, but really this game is fucking sick.

I'm hoping my new strategy of treating NLHE like PLO is good. It's seems to be working so far and helps me make a lot of good folds.

GL!

So the NL100 games were pretty shitty and there were actually more people playing NL200, so I jumped back into NL200.

Won a buyin instantly with a set vs some kid's AA. Cool easy game.

Power goes out, computer shuts off literally right after I stacked the AA. Okay whatever. Get back to the grind.

First hand back, 3bet JJ from the BB, BTN 4bets AQo which is okay, but certainly suboptimal. I lose flip.

A couple minutes later I get 99 in preflop which was probably a semi-mistake, but certainly not bad. It was late position/blinds. Lost to AA obviously b/c that's all they have.

Squeeze AK, AJ calls oop and hits a J. We showdown so I didn't lose much.

KK < T9 on T97 in 3bet pot. Meh not sure how I feel about this. It's pretty much impossible for me to ever want to fold an overpair in a 3bet pot. He could have QJ, KQ, JJ, QQ, AT...right?

Flush over flush in a 3bet pot. Well played sir.

167 hands, lost $719.

POWER GOES OUT AGAIN...MOVE BACK DOWN TO NL100

QQ < AK. Standard

Found out QT is never good on KQT.

These kids are not capable of bluffing. I feel like this is a zero sum game because everybody wants to flip preflop for stacks or show me only the nuts postflop. Somehow I never have good double barrel cards that either a) give me equity or b) make a bluff credible. The fish will put $ in the pot to suck me out, but with their tighter ranges (RUSH) they always have pretty good equity and a lot of implied equity when they cooler me.

Since writing this blog the power has AGAIN gone off and on. Grinding on laptop will do no good as the router is plugged into the wall. Not sure how much battery backup costs, but I am considering going to get some right now and putting my desktop+router on it. If it goes out one more time I am going to get battery backup.

For now, I am going to go look at every big pot I've played this month (won or lost) and find out how big of a donkey I truly am in regards to 6max ranges.

New goal for the rest of the month is to become the best folder at the table. Making the best folds is the only way to be awesome at this game. Since they are rarely bluffing it should not be exploited.

I am a complete donk. I was very close to having completed my 10 buyins at NL100 mission (and would have been there easily if not for spew yesterday). I got within about a buyin, lost a pot in ghey fashion and went on complete monkey tilt yet again. At this point, I do not have the emotional control to fold when beat, stop bluffing into the nuts, or think logically. Definitely not playing NL200 until this gets fixed. I am happy that I switched to 6max BEFORE starting school. I had initially planned to grind HU up until entering school, but got discouraged with HU and went for the switch 2 months early. If I had switched to 6max after entering school it would have been a complete failure. I am learning a lot about myself and 6max during these trying times. You can clearly see twice in the graph where I lose control and start playing for my stack every hand.

Things I have learned
1) Slowplaying is being done by 99% of villains
2) Ranges are tighter than fuck (by tight I mean narrow)
3) If they only represent quads, they have it...see #2
4) Even if turn gets checked by them in position and they act like they have the nuts on the river even though it makes no sense to check the nuts, they have it...see #1, #2, and #3
5) I am an emotional train wreck at the poker tables
6) Tilt is dangerous, even more dangerous than it used to be. With the games becoming SO much harder, tilt can actually completely erase your winrate. Back in the glory days of poker, I had tilt problems, but people were so bad that tilt could not be noticed as easily.

Gameplan for tomorrow
1) Wake up at a decent time, correct the sleep schedule
2) Breakfast, shower, grind...my optimal brain function is early in the day
3) Install TiltDemon program, set stop loss of 3 buyins and limit sessions to 1k hands with 15 minutes break if stop loss or 1k hands are completed. Pretty sick potential with this program if you ask me.
4) Make good folds, good double barrels, and THINK

Poker has been terrible. Absolutely awful. The last 30k hands have been just so LOL. I've never experienced anything like this in my career. I actually can't imagine running like this for much longer. I will probably break something if it continues. I'm not losing much, just can't win.

If I ever run like this while I am in school I will probably end up quitting poker.

I have a new respect for professional 6max players. It's a hard knock life and there is no way I have the emotional control to do it day in and day out for the rest of my life. Thankfully, I am going back to school.

I have been playing my "C" game I would estimate. As punishment and an effort to preserve my bankroll, I am going to move down to 0.5/1 until I make 10 buyins. It won't be easy to make 10 buyins unless I start playing better. I can tell you one thing, I don't want to be playing 0.5/1, so I am gonna try my best and bring my A game.

Had my physical therapy appointment this morning. No significant injuries I just need to do some stretching, strengthen the muscles that support the spine, and watch my posture.

Peace out, GL

Just spewed like 3 buyins in a matter of 5 minutes. 1 was a flip but I had no business being in the pot from the start. Gonna take a mandatory (insert Grogheadflow voice) mini break to re-group. This was a culmination of about 15k hands of never having a pair, never getting paid when I have it, or getting rivered in a spot where I can't fold b/c their range is silly.

EDIT: I timed out with AA preflop as well. That was fun.

In other news, if you don't have Windows 7 64-bit, you should. It's lightning quick compared to Vista 32-bit. I just got it for my laptop and it is like a whole new machine. If you have a student email address (.edu) you can get the upgrade for $65 directly from Microsoft.